Israelis will go to the polls again on
March 23. This is the fourth election in about two years, and we are getting
really tired of this.
As in every
election since 1967, the main issue people are voting on is “What should Israel
do with Judea and Samaria (the West Bank)? The politicians don’t like to admit
that. They don’t want to push themselves into a corner. They prefer to leave
themselves open to receiving as many votes from as many constituencies as possible.
But it’s a fact. All the elections are about that.
But in the past
three elections, as I have written, other issues have surfaced as well, such as
should Benjamin Netanyahu, who is on trial, be allowed to lead a party, and
should chareidi young men be forced
to do the army? But it is only that second issue about the chareidim that has forced three elections in so little time. One
small right-wing party, that of Avigdor Liberman, a resident of a small
settlement in Judea and Samaria, has made this an issue by trying to force chareidi enlistment. To form a
government, the Likud has to have the recommendations of 61 Knesset members out
of 120. Three times, the right wing has had between 55 seats and 60, and
Liberman has had six or seven and has refused to go with Netanyahu’s right wing,
forcing more elections.
This should not be
an issue. Most of the right/religious wing wants to leave the chareidim alone. After all, even without
large chareidi enlistment, the
Religious Zionists more than make up for the chareidim, such that 40 percent of soldiers in officer training are
religious. So if the chareidim and
the Religious Zionists together are creating that 40 percent of officers, while
in the Knesset as a whole, religious and chareidi
representation is only 25 or 30 percent, what is the problem? If anything, the
irreligious should be “forced” to produce more officers.
So we’re in a
fourth election. This one may be different, however. So far, we know almost
nothing about the parties or the constellations and alliances among the
parties. Among the religious Zionists, we don’t know how their party or parties
will look at all. The lists have not yet been released. But we do know four
things:
1) The Likud has
split. Gideon Saar, a top member of the Likud, has created a new party called
The New Hope. This is not a left-wing party. This is not Kadima or the Third
Way or Blue and White. This new party is identical in values and beliefs to the
Likud. Call it “Likud Number 2.” It’s just that Gideon Saar doesn’t like Netanyahu
anymore and wants to topple him. He tried that from within the Likud and failed
miserably. Now he is trying it from without.
2) The left wing
is in shambles. The historic Labor Party that “drained the swamps” may have
disappeared from the political map. Blue and White, which started out at 30
mandates, may not get into the Knesset.
3) The United Arab
Party, which until now has been worth between 13 and 15 seats, is presently
polling 10 seats. I can’t fully explain that. It has something to do with Netanyahu
making deals with one of the factions of the Arabs to invest more money in Arab
infrastructure. As it is, the Arab United Party consists of three very uneasy
bedfellows: a PLO party, a staunchly Islamic Moslem Brotherhood party, and a
Marxist/Communist party. Netanyahu has been making deals with the Moslem
Brotherhood party.
4) The pollsters
have been checking the right-wing/left-wing divide daily, asking questions
along the lines of, “If you had a brother, would he
like kreplach?” What emerges is that this election will be different from the
preceding three. Whereas in the last three elections, the right wing, without
Liberman, was worth 55 to 59 seats, this time, it is consistently polling 75
seats. With Liberman, the right wing is consistently polling 80 seats.
If number four is
true, then it is amazing. It is just what the doctor ordered. The right wing
can win, leave Liberman out, and move on.
Israel faces
challenges right now. The “Arrangements Law,” which I wrote about several years
ago in an article under that title, is more relevant than ever. Thousands of
young Jews live in unrecognized Jewish towns in Judea and Samaria. Trump’s
peace deal would have endangered their towns, leading to possible evacuations.
The law was almost passed a few months ago, but Benny Gantz of Blue and White,
after initially supporting it, in the end blocked it so as not to lose left-wing
votes in the upcoming election. With 80 right-wing seats, it would pass easily.
The new American
president may want to destroy the Emirates deal just to spite Donald Trump. In
fact he has already blocked Trump’s promise to UAE of advanced fighter jets,
which was part of the deal.
And of course, the
right wing would like to further strengthen Judea and Samaria, to put further
nails in the coffin holding the “two-state solution.” With 80 seats, expanding
Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria can move forward, even with a
less-than-sympathetic American president.
So that, “on one
foot,” is what lies before us. As I almost always do, I ask the readers of Where What When to pray for a good
outcome.
Sidebar
Postscript
On Wednesday evening, February 3, just as
I submitted this article, breaking headlines revealed that four small religious
Zionist parties – Noam (followers of Har HaMor Rosh Yeshiva Rabbi Tzvi Tau),
Otzma Yehudit (followers of Rav Kahane), Ichud Leumi (Betzalel Smotritch), and
Bayit Yehudi (Chagit Moshe) – will be forming a technical bloc and running
together. If this is true, it represents good news for the right wing and for religious
Zionism, ensuring fewer wasted and lost votes in the right wing’s struggle for
ascendancy. As for Naftali Bennett’s Yemina party, which looks with half an eye
towards running the country, Bennett is convinced that with his successful term
as defense minister, he has made enough of a name for himself to run alone.
